Bond market inflation expectations and longer-term trends in broad monetary growth and inflation in industrial countries, 1880-2001

4 Non-technical summary 5 Introduction 7 1 The Data: Ten-year Moving Averages in CPI Inflation, 10 Real and Nominal GDP Growth, and M2 Growth II Individual Country and Cross-Country Average Trends in Equation-of-Exchange Variables 18 III Inflationary Expectations Embodied in Bond Rates 33 IV Annual Inflation Estimates Based on Broad Monetary Growth and Bond Market 41 Inflation Expectations V Conclusions 48 References 49 Data Appendix 52 European Central Bank Working Paper Series 59 ECB • Work ing Pape r No 253 • Sep tember 2003 3 Abstract “Bond Market Inflation Expectation and Longer-term Trends in Broad Monetary Growth and Inflation in Industrial Countries, 1880-2001” by William G. Dewald, Professor of Economics Emeritus, Ohio State University and Former Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.Bond Market Inflation Expectation and Longer-term Trends in Broad Monetary Growth and Inflation in Industrial Countries, 1880-2001” by William G. Dewald, Professor of Economics Emeritus, Ohio State University and Former Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.